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Standing clear is safer this year
If a knife falls off the kitchen counter, you shouldn’t try to catch it before it hits the floor.
In financial markets, “catching a falling knife” describes the stock market crashing. Trying to buy in before it hits rock bottom is akin to grabbing a plunging blade — you risk severe injury (financial loss) rather than waiting until it’s safe to pick it up.
It’s also common knowledge that a dull knife is more dangerous than a sharp one.
This is because a dull blade requires more force, which makes it more likely to slip, move erratically, and cut you before you even realize what happened — especially when you’re working fast.
This is why experienced chefs (and financial advisors) know that unless you absolutely must stop the knife before it hits the floor, it’s better to stand clear and let it fall.
Which brings us to the 2026 Oakland elections.
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The shifting dynamics of Oakland politics
The recent defeat of Measure E and before that, the successful recalls of mayor Sheng Thao and district attorney Pamela Price exposed shifting dynamics in Oakland politics — and how much “Oakland progressive” branding, while still potent in some quarters, appears to have thinned.12
It also showed that a new message resonated with Oakland voters and revealed new maps of political support for prioritizing ethics, accountability, and practical results in local government.34
Mayor Barbara Lee campaigned heavily in support of Measure E.5 After voters rejected the measure, a path seemed to open for a competitive candidate to challenge and potentially unseat Lee from the mayor’s office in 2026.
Perhaps the strongest potential challenger was Loren Taylor, who came very close to winning the mayor’s seat in both the regular election in 2022 and in the post-recall election in 2024.
But, despite receiving a fair amount of encouragement from civic-minded Oaklanders to run for mayor again, Taylor ultimately decided to sit this one out.
I asked Taylor why he did not file to run this year, and this was his response:
“Most Oaklanders acknowledge that we’re still not moving with the focus and urgency that we need on our most critical issues. While the coalition we’ve built [the one that defeated Measure E] is united around solving these most critical problems, not all agree that changing mayors at this time is the highest priority for Oakland. I decided not to run for mayor in this year’s election because I believe it better to focus our coalition on the priority issues we agree on instead of making the Mayor’s race the focus, which would distract and divide us.”
— Loren Taylor, former Oakland council member and mayoral contender
Why are fewer qualified candidates running for mayor and council this year?
The 2022 city elections saw competitive races across the board, including the mayor’s race. Sheng Thao ultimately won that race by fewer than 700 ranked-choice votes — a mere fraction of a percentage point.6
Back in 2022, ten people ran for mayor, including three sitting council members and one former council member. That election also showed just how competitive Oakland politics had become: council districts 2, 4, and 6 all featured strong challengers. Since the 2022 election cycles, six first-time council members were elected (Oakland has eight council members plus a mayor).7
In 2026, it’s almost the exact opposite situation. This year, the mayor’s seat and three council seats in districts 2, 4, and 6 are up for election again — but there are very few competitive races.
(Notably, the Oakland Unified School District board elections are genuinely competitive races this year — but that is a topic for another commentary.)
This year, only four people are running for mayor, and based on campaign finance filings to date, there has been relatively little fundraising or institutional support among the challengers, with Lee far and away in the lead.89
Candidate Mindy Pechanuk appears to have the most organized base, with a small but passionate group of mostly local conservatives — but her supporters’ numbers appear to be limited, compared to Lee’s juggernaut.
Candidate Brenda Grisham, a prominent figure in the 2022 district attorney recall, is a compelling candidate but hasn’t seemed to gain momentum. And like Grisham, candidate Julius Robinson also has not reported any campaign funds raised as of June 30.
Unless Barbara Lee, who is 80 years old, withdraws or becomes incapacitated from old age before election day, she appears to be a lock to win election to a full term as mayor.
(Whether Lee’s advancing age could lead to incapacitation after she is elected is a real and present concern that voters have to reckon with and decide for themselves — as they have with octogenarian candidates in other elections across the country.)
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What about the city council races?
On city council, District 2’s Charlene Wang has drawn a somewhat competitive challenger in Nate Adams — a self-described “democratic socialist” candidate whose polished marketing materials and campaigning seem to be popping up all over Oakland lately.
Candidate Adams appears to be working hard to raise his profile and appeal to Oaklanders, but so far his campaign appears to have limited institutional support and fundraising, compared to the relatively more moderate incumbent.
Adams’ campaign provides a potentially interesting test: has the “democratic socialists of America” (DSA) movement run out the clock on their effectiveness, entering “useful idiot” territory, for local progressives? Notably, Adams appears to have virtually no meaningful support from the local progressive institutions.
The progressive incumbents have lately appeared to shift toward a somewhat more pro-tech, pro-business platform — possibly out of self-preservation — as voter sentiment has shifted toward fixing Oakland’s day-to-day problems like public safety, encampments and illegal dumping, not to mention the city’s infamous, chronic governmental dysfunction.10
For her part, the incumbent Wang is a fairly visible and active council member who regularly engages with her constituents. She appears to be safe from Adams’ challenge — but it is still early in the contest.
The District 4 race is an interesting situation. The incumbent influencer/singer/council member, Janani Ramachandran drew no challengers, despite hailing from a politically active district that has produced Oakland’s previous three mayors, and despite concerns about her lack of gravitas and her potential self-dealing.11
Read this related story:
District 6 incumbent council president Kevin Jenkins drew one challenger: the persistent Nancy Sidebotham, who has run in seemingly every election possible for decades. Sidebotham typically hasn’t raised or spent much money in her campaigns — instead, she appears to mostly use her candidacy as a pulpit to spread awareness about Oakland’s dysfunction.
I respect Sidebotham because I find her observations about Oakland’s problems are mostly spot-on. But District 6 is not exactly a competitive race — unless there is an “October surprise” in store for incumbent council member Jenkins related to the Sheng Thao federal corruption trial, which is set to begin October 19.12
(Jenkins is a witness in the trial and has not been charged with any wrongdoing.)
What about the city auditor’s race?
Incumbent city auditor Michael Houston is running unopposed for re-election. This is consistent with the last three election cycles that have seen no competition for this important role.
Perhaps this is because one actually has to be professionally qualified to effectively perform the role of city auditor (unlike city council, where the bar for qualification is quite a bit lower).1314
Even the mayor’s seat — the most important and consequential elected position in the city — appears to be elected on vibes as much as qualifications. For example, Sheng Thao won the mayor’s seat in 2022 even after demonstrating her inability to explain basic government functions like how a municipal bond works.15
It’s all vibes here in Oakland, baby.
But vibes won’t fix our city’s serious financial problems — and that’s just the tip of the knife.
Past is prologue to Oakland’s precarious present
It may seem like ancient history, but to understand Oakland’s current financial predicament, it’s important to go back to where it started. Here are five key events that knocked the knife off the counter:
The Oakland Coliseum deal. The city tied our financial future to the sale of the Oakland Coliseum to the African-American Sports and Entertainment Group (AASEG), counting on that money to help stabilize the city’s finances. Then the city failed to ever receive the money it was promised, helping force us into austerity measures.16
Measure NN and Oakland’s police staffing. Voters passed Measure NN on a promise of the city maintaining a minimum of 700 officers. The city then did its usual Lucy-Charlie Brown football pull, and used the money to patch the budget instead.17
Measure E parcel tax rejected. Taxpayers finally had enough of the lack of transparency and the waste and abuse of taxpayer dollars in Oakland. After voters rejected the new tax, the city suddenly found the magic beans after all, and saved the budget, again — for now.18
Budget alarm bells. Oh, and the Alameda County Grand Jury and the Bay Area Council Economic Institute both released comprehensive reports sounding the alarm on the existential severity of Oakland’s budget crisis.1920
“No coal” lawsuit. A potential $600-plus million judgment from the Oakland coal lawsuit saga is still looming like an iceberg waiting for the Titanic.2122
All of the above events were and continue to be very bad for the city of Oakland — financially, politically, and most importantly, for everyday Oaklanders who depend on and deserve a fully functioning city.
Unless something drastic changes, Oakland’s financial future looks like bankruptcy is near.
Given all this, it’s reasonable that few qualified potential candidates are eager to pause their professional careers and other successful pursuits to challenge Oakland’s current roster of incumbents.
Who wants to be in charge of a potentially soon-to-be-bankrupt city — where the elected leaders may soon no longer control the city’s budget, can’t deliver the services people need and deserve, and are effectively little more than rubber stamps and punching bags for problems they no longer have control over but still are responsible for solving?
I surely don’t.
Perhaps the more interesting question is who does want to seek or remain in office under these circumstances — and what’s in it for them?
The knife’s edge — Sheng Thao’s corruption trial
If the Sheng Thao trial proceeds as scheduled, Oaklanders may be forced to confront questions that cannot simply be wished away: how deep did the corruption run, who was involved, and how did so many people in positions of power and responsibility fail to see — or choose not to see — what was happening?
Like the knife falling from the kitchen counter, Oaklanders would be wise to let it fall to the floor, then reckon honestly with the damage it has caused.
Civic-minded Oaklanders can learn much from this trial — that is, if it proceeds all the way to trial. (All four of the key defendants — Sheng Thao, her partner Andre Jones, and Andy Duong and David Duong of California Waste Solutions have pleaded not guilty.)
A full and fair trial, with all the testimony and evidence presented for the public to see, deserves close public scrutiny by every Oaklander, because it will tell us just how deep the rot goes and who was involved. Otherwise, after the knife has finished its descent and the damage is done, how will Oaklanders know who to trust, what we’re walking into, or who we’re really dealing with?
Read this related story:
Another important factor: Oakland’s toxic political environment
Oakland has developed a political environment that makes running for office look less like public service and more like volunteering for a four-year public bloodletting.
And I believe that’s intentional, by the way.
I can speak from first-hand experience here. Run hard against Oakland’s “progressives,” and masked protestors just might march on your home and vandalize it.23 Lies and rumors just might be circulated about you in a coordinated smear campaign.24 City departments like the Public Ethics Commission and City Attorney’s Office could even become weaponized against you, simply for asking tough questions about accountability that Oaklanders ask every day in this city.25
For a prospective candidate who has a lot to lose — friends, employment prospects, reputation — against tactics such as this, why risk the possibility of weaponized media coverage, coordinated smears, bot armies, and cancellation, just to win an office and inherit a city burdened with enormous and potentially insurmountable fiscal and structural challenges?
Which brings me to my last question.
Why are so few candidates willing to challenge the political establishment by running hard to the left of the current “progressive” regime?
Notably, the same “progressives” who spent years accusing recall leaders of secretly plotting a right wing, “billionaire” tech takeover of Oakland are now defending data centers to voters, and rolling out the red carpet for corporations owned by billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.
(I’m not offering a political position on data centers or billionaires; I’m merely pointing out the hypocrisy and apparent political opportunism.)
District 3 council member Carroll Fife, who is not up for re-election until 2028, is now arguing with her (former?) base of supporters over her support for bringing data centers to West Oakland.26 This would have been unheard of just a few years ago.
“Progressive” darling Barbara Lee is now taking gleeful photo-op pictures with AI robots meant to replace human labor — including in those very data centers.27
The challenger for the District 2 council seat, the democratic socialist Nate Adams appears to be sincere in his efforts to flank Oakland’s political establishment from the left — but it remains to be seen whether the electorate has the appetite for an even harder turn to the extreme left than Oakland already lives with.
It’s all weird right now.
I believe it’s because Oakland’s “grassroots” progressive movement has always been astroturfed to a large degree by elite donors, nonprofits, foundations, and corporations with ulterior motives, despite posturing to the contrary. This is ironic because accusing their opponents of elitism and fakery is a go-to tactic of Oakland’s progressives.
In my experience, many progressive accusations sound a lot like confessions. Their favored politicians’ latest twist with data centers (not to mention surveillance tech like Flock cameras) is a prime example of this.
Take Piedmont billionaire Quinn Delaney and her husband, real estate developer Wayne Jordan. They have contributed millions to local “progressive” causes in recent years.28 Take for another example tech companies like Meta giving seed funding to progressive-friendly local nonprofit news media outlets like The Oaklandside.29
But more recently, the Oakland power-progressives have appeared far more hesitant to bring new ideas and people into their inner circle. Their operating principle now seems to be “No New Friends.”30
Why is that?
I believe it’s because as the political machine currently in power, they’re on the hot seat for Oakland’s current dysfunction.
Furthermore, with the Sheng Thao trial looming and new disclosures coming out, it seems that there are many among the in-group who possess compromising information about each other. Bringing new people into the inner circle could upset the equilibrium of what I believe — and the trial could prove — is a coordinated grift that involves many more people than just the four defendants currently charged.
So why would anyone who is successful in the world outside of local government and politics want to walk into the mess that is Oakland City Hall at this moment?
I certainly don’t.
Let the knife hit the floor.
The views expressed in our Commentaries do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of Oakland Report or its contributing writers. Learn more
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Seneca Scott is a political strategist, writer, and organizer working at the intersection of media, power, and civic reform. Based in Oakland and Nashville, he has become a prominent voice on municipal governance and institutional accountability in America’s cities.
A national CBS contributor, Scott has appeared in local, national, and international outlets analyzing public-sector politics, urban decline, and political realignment. He is best known for his leadership role in the successful recall of Oakland’s former mayor— a grassroots effort that placed government accountability at the center of public debate.
Scott previously served as East Bay Director for SEIU Local 1021, representing thousands of public-sector workers and leading major contract campaigns and labor actions. As an organizing director for multiple unions across California, he built worker-led coalitions and negotiated complex agreements in highly charged political environments.
His writing has appeared in Newsweek, Compact Magazine, City Journal, and The Free Press, where he focuses on governance, fiscal policy, and the future of American cities.
A graduate of Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Scott ran for mayor of Oakland in 2022 on a charter reform platform advocating a stronger mayoral system, drawing on SPUR’s 2021 report, Making Government Work. During the recall effort, he founded Gotham Oakland, an independent media platform dedicated to exposing municipal corruption and challenging local political dysfunction.
Through consulting, media, and organizing, he works to advance transparency, fiscal discipline, and institutional reform at the local level.
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Talerico, Kate. “A defeat of Oakland’s parcel tax would be bad news for Mayor Barbara Lee.” San Francisco Chronicle, Jun. 3, 2026. https://www.sfchronicle.com/eastbay/article/oakland-measure-e-barbara-lee-22290242.php; https://archive.is/GpUEY
Har, Janie. "Progressive icon Barbara Lee wants to be mayor of an Oakland marked by crime and homelessness." NBC Bay Area, Mar. 22, 2025. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/barbara-lee-oakland-mayoral-race-crime-homelessness/3825500/
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Scott, Seneca. “Oakland’s gentrification voting bloc: Measure E exposed.” Gotham Oakland, June 23, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woG96w_CSfI
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Thank you for this. Oakland has so much potential but is so stuck. Maybe this trial will expose some of the rot that needs to be addressed? We seem good at putting band aids on problems, but not really fixing them