The value of uncertainty in life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. A transcript of Oakland Report co-founder Tim Gardner's remarks to the Rotary Club of Oakland on November 6, 2025.
The hope for good government, for rational and scientific public administration, was and still is the promise of the Progressive Movement. But that hope has always been fatally misplaced. The scientific method works because it subjects ideas to objective scrutiny, and forces those that cannot withstand such scrutiny to failure. Similarly, markets work because they subject commercial activities to failure if they cannot independently sustain themselves. No similar mechanism exists for government. Each individual consumer personally benefits or suffers when they purchase a product or service; the most any individual voter can do is express an inconsequential opinion—unless they choose to “vote with their feet” and move to a different jurisdiction.
Before the Enlightenment, all human endeavors were conducted as matters of faith or zero-sum exercises of raw power. The genius of the American Experiment wasn’t “democracy” or “equality” but limited, distributed and competitive governance, along with a basic set of hard-coded freedoms. Adam Smith was right: there really is a great deal of ruin in a nation. For many, maybe most, Oakland “works.” And when it stops working, they’ll leave. Until then, nothing much will change in Oakland.
I share your frustration and you make some very good points about the feedback loop in industry and in science -- and that failure IS an option in those fields.
Fundamentally, the feedback loop in a functional democracy is scrutiny and choice of our leaders. But that only works if the electorate understands the issues and has the educational tools to process it.
There is a wonderful article from 2019 that outlines how early in our republic this notion was understood, and how it drove the formation of our public schools. From that article:
'In 1836, Michigan’s first governor, Stevens T. Mason, addressed a joint session of the state legislature and spelled out what the purpose of education should be for the young state.
“Public opinion directs the course which our government pursues,” Mason told them, “and so long as the people are enlightened, that direction will never be mistaken. It becomes then your imperious duty, to secure to the state, a general diffusion of knowledge.”'
The Common School Movement was certainly a necessary precursor to the Progressive Era's educational reforms, as a literate electorate was considered essential for a functioning democracy. But history has since proven that education (or even intelligence) doesn't deliver responsible government, either. Indeed, oftentimes higher educational achievement is linked to even more irrational choices at the ballot box. Both Ilya Somin and Bryan Caplan have written extensively on why democracies suffer from the rational voter problem, and how ideological geographic sorting paradoxically exacerbates dysfunction. See Somin, I. (2020). Democracy and Political Ignorance: Why Smaller Government is Smarter, Second Edition. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804799355 and Caplan, B. (2011). The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies - New Edition. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4gf2.
Hi Steven, thank you for your comment. We would like to publish your comment in our next Letters to the Editor column. Our standard is to sign letters with the writer's name and city. Would you please be so kind as to let us know your city of residence? You can let us know in private message. Thank you!
Tim, would you explain why property owners should not be required to paint over graffiti or be fined? Is it different from other obligations of a property owner to maintain the property? Given the continuing abundance of graffiti, not evident how much effort Oakland puts into enforcing such fines!
Great piece. But for those of us incapable of grasping the quantum wave equation, this fifty-year Oakland resident offers a lifetime of observation in one simple truth: Oakland is HOPELESS. Absolutely nothing will ever change this. Not even Jerry Brown could do it. Certainly our new Ron Dellums mayor cannot, and her election alone demonstrates the depth of Oakland's problems. So live here if you want. I do. But stop dreaming that anyone can make a difference.
Hi Robert, thank you for your comment. We would like to publish your comment in our next Letters to the Editor column. Our standard is to sign letters with the writer's name and city. Would you please be so kind as to let us know your city of residence? You can let us know in private message. Thank you!
Thank you Tim! Love the Oakland Report and your work.
To continue the conversation on OUSD, as a parent, I believe some of those schools slated for closure were meeting a genuine need for those working families in the schools’ neighborhoods. And maybe the better answer would be to partially fund them with another revenue stream. Creativity needed, but not impossible.
Agree that some schools that had low attendance needed to be consolidated, but at the time, the school board and OUSD had no transportation plan for the kids, and it was literally last minute and chaotic. Also, not all were “failing”, some in fact were very successful, and cynically, if you check the map, some school properties were close to the proposed Howard Terminal and likely slated for sale to generate revenue. Thinking of the China Basin area near Giants stadium.
OUSD and the school board need to put together a step plan that maps out how the cost saving consolidation will work for kids, the curriculum, the teachers and staff, and OUSD. They need to work together, think it through, and then communicate the plan to the community so that people can plan ahead.
The hope for good government, for rational and scientific public administration, was and still is the promise of the Progressive Movement. But that hope has always been fatally misplaced. The scientific method works because it subjects ideas to objective scrutiny, and forces those that cannot withstand such scrutiny to failure. Similarly, markets work because they subject commercial activities to failure if they cannot independently sustain themselves. No similar mechanism exists for government. Each individual consumer personally benefits or suffers when they purchase a product or service; the most any individual voter can do is express an inconsequential opinion—unless they choose to “vote with their feet” and move to a different jurisdiction.
Before the Enlightenment, all human endeavors were conducted as matters of faith or zero-sum exercises of raw power. The genius of the American Experiment wasn’t “democracy” or “equality” but limited, distributed and competitive governance, along with a basic set of hard-coded freedoms. Adam Smith was right: there really is a great deal of ruin in a nation. For many, maybe most, Oakland “works.” And when it stops working, they’ll leave. Until then, nothing much will change in Oakland.
I share your frustration and you make some very good points about the feedback loop in industry and in science -- and that failure IS an option in those fields.
Fundamentally, the feedback loop in a functional democracy is scrutiny and choice of our leaders. But that only works if the electorate understands the issues and has the educational tools to process it.
There is a wonderful article from 2019 that outlines how early in our republic this notion was understood, and how it drove the formation of our public schools. From that article:
'In 1836, Michigan’s first governor, Stevens T. Mason, addressed a joint session of the state legislature and spelled out what the purpose of education should be for the young state.
“Public opinion directs the course which our government pursues,” Mason told them, “and so long as the people are enlightened, that direction will never be mistaken. It becomes then your imperious duty, to secure to the state, a general diffusion of knowledge.”'
https://www.michiganpublic.org/education/2019-08-29/the-forgotten-history-of-how-a-grand-rapids-high-school-transformed-education-in-america
The Common School Movement was certainly a necessary precursor to the Progressive Era's educational reforms, as a literate electorate was considered essential for a functioning democracy. But history has since proven that education (or even intelligence) doesn't deliver responsible government, either. Indeed, oftentimes higher educational achievement is linked to even more irrational choices at the ballot box. Both Ilya Somin and Bryan Caplan have written extensively on why democracies suffer from the rational voter problem, and how ideological geographic sorting paradoxically exacerbates dysfunction. See Somin, I. (2020). Democracy and Political Ignorance: Why Smaller Government is Smarter, Second Edition. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804799355 and Caplan, B. (2011). The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies - New Edition. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4gf2.
Superb (I think but am not totally sure)!
Great— thank you!
Hi Steven, thank you for your comment. We would like to publish your comment in our next Letters to the Editor column. Our standard is to sign letters with the writer's name and city. Would you please be so kind as to let us know your city of residence? You can let us know in private message. Thank you!
Oakland!
Nailed it. Could have been a TED Talk!
Tim, would you explain why property owners should not be required to paint over graffiti or be fined? Is it different from other obligations of a property owner to maintain the property? Given the continuing abundance of graffiti, not evident how much effort Oakland puts into enforcing such fines!
Great piece. But for those of us incapable of grasping the quantum wave equation, this fifty-year Oakland resident offers a lifetime of observation in one simple truth: Oakland is HOPELESS. Absolutely nothing will ever change this. Not even Jerry Brown could do it. Certainly our new Ron Dellums mayor cannot, and her election alone demonstrates the depth of Oakland's problems. So live here if you want. I do. But stop dreaming that anyone can make a difference.
Hi Robert, thank you for your comment. We would like to publish your comment in our next Letters to the Editor column. Our standard is to sign letters with the writer's name and city. Would you please be so kind as to let us know your city of residence? You can let us know in private message. Thank you!
👍👍😁
Simply the best...as ALWAYS! 🙏
Thank you Tim! Love the Oakland Report and your work.
To continue the conversation on OUSD, as a parent, I believe some of those schools slated for closure were meeting a genuine need for those working families in the schools’ neighborhoods. And maybe the better answer would be to partially fund them with another revenue stream. Creativity needed, but not impossible.
Agree that some schools that had low attendance needed to be consolidated, but at the time, the school board and OUSD had no transportation plan for the kids, and it was literally last minute and chaotic. Also, not all were “failing”, some in fact were very successful, and cynically, if you check the map, some school properties were close to the proposed Howard Terminal and likely slated for sale to generate revenue. Thinking of the China Basin area near Giants stadium.
OUSD and the school board need to put together a step plan that maps out how the cost saving consolidation will work for kids, the curriculum, the teachers and staff, and OUSD. They need to work together, think it through, and then communicate the plan to the community so that people can plan ahead.
I really appreciate your thoughts and contribution. Never knew your creation story before now. Healing Oakland will take the head and the heart.
Well done, Tim! Inspiring, and instructive.
Thank you, great to hear from you again
Love this…and. Grateful for your curiosity…